Over at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, there's a good discussion of how confident Republicans should be about reclaiming the District 5 Congressional seat held by JD Hayworth for the last 12 years. The first challenge they will face is nominating a top-flight candidate.
JD is a non-starter, in my opinion. He will find that a right wing media gig will be much more lucrative and he was already sounding more and more like a talk show host. The right wing will be pushing hard for a true beleiver which could make things a lot easier for Mitchell. Outgoing LD17 legislator Laura Knaperek has been mentioned, but she's already been beat by Mitchell in the 2002 State Senate race, and by Ed Ableser and David Schapira (by a healthy 3,000 votes) last month in her bid for re-election to the House.
Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman is an intriguing possibility. He's a smart politician who was severely underestimated by Democrats when he faced off against Councilman Dennis Cahill three years ago. Would he be able to cut into Mitchell's Tempe stronghold and still rack up big margins in other parts of the district? That would be his test.
While some have mentioned Scottsdale State Sen. Carolyn Allen, she is too liberal for the base, and too wacky in any event. The best fit for the GOP might be someone like LD8 State Rep. Michelle Reagan, who has been a go-to legislator for the business community bu has a more moderate image on social issues. But would the conservatives let a perceived moderate have the nomination with out a fight? I doubt it, and that might be the best scenario for Mitchell.
Tommorrow I will post on what Mitchell has to do to win.
Saturday, December 2, 2006
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Republican Party meltdown
Many of the conservative blogs have been intently covering the LD11 fight for Republican district chair between former Gov. Fife Symington (presumably representing the McCain wing of the Party) and incumbent chair Rob Haney, who seems to get his support from the more conservative factions of the party.
According to www.espressopundit.com, www.hotazitgets.com, www.sonoranalliance.com, and others, Haney smoked Symington pretty well, giving McCain a sharp poke in the eye (though I would assume Symington's felony history probably didn't help his chances).
The next major battle will be for State Republican Party chair, where two-time failed Phoenix mayoral candidate and current Republican National Committeeman Randy Pullen has been eyeing the post for awhile. Surfacing recently is Lisa James, wife of Bush ultra-insider Gordon James and representing the McCain establishment. Len Munsil may also be a candidate.
Pullen has made his mark recently spearheading a couple of anti-immigrant measures, including Prop 200 which passed overwhelmingly in 2004, and then trying to get a proposition before Phoenix voters that would explicitly put police in the immigration enforcement business. The measure got bounced from the November ballot because of petition problems but could reappear sometime in 2007.
If Pullen doesn't get the GOP chair position, look for him to throw his hat in the ring for mayor again (where he will be mightily thumped again). One of the problems with his anti-immigrant platform is most of that constituency hails from outside Phoenix proper. City Hall sources say one of the reasons his signatures came up short is he couldn't get enough Phoenix volunteers to collect the 15,000 signatures he needed and waited till the last minute to get signature gatherers from the East Valley to help out.
www.hotazitgets.com reports that the LD11 McCain slate for state committee that presumably would support James for state chair lost big time. So the next question is, will Munsil or Pullen be the beneficiary?
According to www.espressopundit.com, www.hotazitgets.com, www.sonoranalliance.com, and others, Haney smoked Symington pretty well, giving McCain a sharp poke in the eye (though I would assume Symington's felony history probably didn't help his chances).
The next major battle will be for State Republican Party chair, where two-time failed Phoenix mayoral candidate and current Republican National Committeeman Randy Pullen has been eyeing the post for awhile. Surfacing recently is Lisa James, wife of Bush ultra-insider Gordon James and representing the McCain establishment. Len Munsil may also be a candidate.
Pullen has made his mark recently spearheading a couple of anti-immigrant measures, including Prop 200 which passed overwhelmingly in 2004, and then trying to get a proposition before Phoenix voters that would explicitly put police in the immigration enforcement business. The measure got bounced from the November ballot because of petition problems but could reappear sometime in 2007.
If Pullen doesn't get the GOP chair position, look for him to throw his hat in the ring for mayor again (where he will be mightily thumped again). One of the problems with his anti-immigrant platform is most of that constituency hails from outside Phoenix proper. City Hall sources say one of the reasons his signatures came up short is he couldn't get enough Phoenix volunteers to collect the 15,000 signatures he needed and waited till the last minute to get signature gatherers from the East Valley to help out.
www.hotazitgets.com reports that the LD11 McCain slate for state committee that presumably would support James for state chair lost big time. So the next question is, will Munsil or Pullen be the beneficiary?
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Dean's 50-state strategy key to AZ Dem victories?
In Washington former Clinton operative James Carville continues to dump all over DNC chair Howard Dean, claiming that Dean's commitment to fund organizers in every state diverted needed funds from marginal Congressional races and ultimately cost Democrats some seats.
In Arizona, DNC-funded staff were key to get-out-the-vote actvities in CD5 and a number of key legislative races, according to party leaders. In fact, as the counting of early ballots progressed throughout last week, Democratic candidates gained votes in many races, including CD5, LD24 in Yuma (where Democrats swept the legislative races), and LD26 in Tucson (where Democrat Charlene Pesquiera upset right-winger Al Melvin).
It's hard to argue with success, and Dean's strategy appeared to pay dividends in Arizona.
In Arizona, DNC-funded staff were key to get-out-the-vote actvities in CD5 and a number of key legislative races, according to party leaders. In fact, as the counting of early ballots progressed throughout last week, Democratic candidates gained votes in many races, including CD5, LD24 in Yuma (where Democrats swept the legislative races), and LD26 in Tucson (where Democrat Charlene Pesquiera upset right-winger Al Melvin).
It's hard to argue with success, and Dean's strategy appeared to pay dividends in Arizona.
Monday, November 20, 2006
Was 9-11 Memorial Munsil's ticket to victory?
Over at EspressoPundit, one commentator doesn't think the controversy over the 9-11 Memorial didn't get enough play.
"The 9-11 memorial would have been much bigger had it not been played down as an election year scheme and overshadowed by all the other hyperbole of the multitude of campaigns."
In reality, Len Munsil's gubernatorial campaign flatlined when he jumped on the 9-11 Memorial bandwagon. After a surprisingly strong primary victory over Don Goldwater, he promised to unveil a major policy proposal each week of the general election campaign. Instead, he spent the rest of the race trying to convince voters that Janet was responsible for the Al-Quada attacks on the World Trade Center.
That was too much of a stretch. Voters were plenty concerned about the impact of illegal immigration on local crime, neighborhood blight, and school overcrowding, but weren't going to buy that the Governor was a co-conspirator in Islamofascism.
He had at least two television ads on the topic, neither one of which was very good. (The first one barely mentioned Munsil's name.) Then the Republican Party produced the infamous piece of mail that ended up at Democratic HQ with the cover shot of the WTC in flames.
I know that the national Republican strategy was to connect the twin threats of illegal immigraiton and terrorism to Democrats, but Munsil's gambit seemed forced and in retrospect was the end of his gubernatorial chances.
"The 9-11 memorial would have been much bigger had it not been played down as an election year scheme and overshadowed by all the other hyperbole of the multitude of campaigns."
In reality, Len Munsil's gubernatorial campaign flatlined when he jumped on the 9-11 Memorial bandwagon. After a surprisingly strong primary victory over Don Goldwater, he promised to unveil a major policy proposal each week of the general election campaign. Instead, he spent the rest of the race trying to convince voters that Janet was responsible for the Al-Quada attacks on the World Trade Center.
That was too much of a stretch. Voters were plenty concerned about the impact of illegal immigration on local crime, neighborhood blight, and school overcrowding, but weren't going to buy that the Governor was a co-conspirator in Islamofascism.
He had at least two television ads on the topic, neither one of which was very good. (The first one barely mentioned Munsil's name.) Then the Republican Party produced the infamous piece of mail that ended up at Democratic HQ with the cover shot of the WTC in flames.
I know that the national Republican strategy was to connect the twin threats of illegal immigraiton and terrorism to Democrats, but Munsil's gambit seemed forced and in retrospect was the end of his gubernatorial chances.
What are GOP legislators smoking?
Yesterday's Republic quotes several top Republican legislators as saying Gov. Napolitano's 63%-35% victory doesn't constitute a mandate for for her policies.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/1119nomandate1119.html
"Napolitano's 27 percentage point win over Republican Len Munsil doesn't amount to a mandate for her own wish-list that includes expanding health care programs, because she ran on Republican priorities such as cutting taxes, improving the state's fiscal health and enhancing border security, Senate Majority Leader-elect Thayer Verschoor said.
"Vershoor and fellow skeptic Jim Weiers must be forgetting about the loss of seven Republican legislative seats in this month's election as well. With Amanda Aguirre's victory in Yuma and Charlene Pesquiera's win in north Tucson, Democrats gained a Senate seat and now trail the GOP by a 17-13 margin in the upper chamber. When one considers RINOs Carolyn Allen and Tom O'Halleran, the Governor has at least 15 Senators who will side with her on key votes.
In the House, Democrats picked up six seats, far exceeding any pre-election predictions, narrowing their deficit from 39-21 to 33-27. Again, a handful of Republicans will join Democrats on key votes to make it impossible for Republicans to move their divisive and confrontational agenda.
That may be too bad. At least one Democratic consultant heavily involved in this year's campaign is already salivating over the idea of beating up on this clueless bunch again in 2008 if they try to run on an anti-Janet platform.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/1119nomandate1119.html
"Napolitano's 27 percentage point win over Republican Len Munsil doesn't amount to a mandate for her own wish-list that includes expanding health care programs, because she ran on Republican priorities such as cutting taxes, improving the state's fiscal health and enhancing border security, Senate Majority Leader-elect Thayer Verschoor said.
"Vershoor and fellow skeptic Jim Weiers must be forgetting about the loss of seven Republican legislative seats in this month's election as well. With Amanda Aguirre's victory in Yuma and Charlene Pesquiera's win in north Tucson, Democrats gained a Senate seat and now trail the GOP by a 17-13 margin in the upper chamber. When one considers RINOs Carolyn Allen and Tom O'Halleran, the Governor has at least 15 Senators who will side with her on key votes.
In the House, Democrats picked up six seats, far exceeding any pre-election predictions, narrowing their deficit from 39-21 to 33-27. Again, a handful of Republicans will join Democrats on key votes to make it impossible for Republicans to move their divisive and confrontational agenda.
That may be too bad. At least one Democratic consultant heavily involved in this year's campaign is already salivating over the idea of beating up on this clueless bunch again in 2008 if they try to run on an anti-Janet platform.
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