Can Mitchell hold CD5?

Over at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, there's a good discussion of how confident Republicans should be about reclaiming the District 5 Congressional seat held by JD Hayworth for the last 12 years. The first challenge they will face is nominating a top-flight candidate.

JD is a non-starter, in my opinion. He will find that a right wing media gig will be much more lucrative and he was already sounding more and more like a talk show host. The right wing will be pushing hard for a true beleiver which could make things a lot easier for Mitchell. Outgoing LD17 legislator Laura Knaperek has been mentioned, but she's already been beat by Mitchell in the 2002 State Senate race, and by Ed Ableser and David Schapira (by a healthy 3,000 votes) last month in her bid for re-election to the House.

Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman is an intriguing possibility. He's a smart politician who was severely underestimated by Democrats when he faced off against Councilman Dennis Cahill three years ago. Would he be able to cut into Mitchell's Tempe stronghold and still rack up big margins in other parts of the district? That would be his test.

While some have mentioned Scottsdale State Sen. Carolyn Allen, she is too liberal for the base, and too wacky in any event. The best fit for the GOP might be someone like LD8 State Rep. Michelle Reagan, who has been a go-to legislator for the business community bu has a more moderate image on social issues. But would the conservatives let a perceived moderate have the nomination with out a fight? I doubt it, and that might be the best scenario for Mitchell.

Tommorrow I will post on what Mitchell has to do to win.